OFF(and on)

M Holmes fofp at HOLYROOD.ED.AC.UK
Wed Sep 12 21:45:43 EDT 2001


ANDREW GARIBALDI writes:

> I hope Ben will not regard this as political but surely, following
> Mike's opinion earlier, the danger is that the western world will talk
> itself into a recession/meltdown if it is not careful

I'm less pessimistic given the recovery in the Footsie today. The falls
in the east aren't really commensurate with a market capitulation.
Airlines and insurance will be gutted of course. My real worry is how
out of whack the derivatives players bets will be when the US markets
come back online, and just how much leverage they'll have stacked up on
top of it. As LTCM showed, buildings aren't he only thing that can
pancake. We may regret the refusal to regulate the hedge funds.

I guess we won't know until we know though.

FoFP



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